Thursday, February 26, 2009

Post-Combine Thoughts

[Note: I apologize for the lack of any substantive posting during the Combine. Such is the life of a college student.]

There's nothing like the NFL Combine, really. The eyes of the football world turn to Indianapolis to see how high a guy can jump, how far he can jump when standing still, and how many reps he can do on the bench press.

Do you get two points if your starting defensive tackle can do 28 reps at 225? No?

The combine did, however, provide us with some clarity in a couple of situations. The offensive tackle picture became a little less muddier. Andre Smith decided it would be a good idea to leave the Combine early and not tell anyone. This erratic move, coupled with his Sugar Bowl suspension and weight issues, clearly makes him the No. 3 offensive tackle. As for the other two - Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe - some people believe Smith has the slight edge. When it's all said and done, all three will be first round draft picks, but I still hold to the belief that Monroe will be the first tackle off the board.

Aside from that, I wouldn't say there were major changes at other positions. Matthew Stafford is still the guy at quarterback, with Mark Sanchez a close second. On the defensive side of the ball, the top players at each position remain intact.

In other words, the Combine served to reinforce our beliefs - not change them.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Combine Approaching: Part I

The NFL's annual draft combine begins Wednesday in Indianapolis, and for many players, this is a pivotal point in the pre-draft process. The combine can make some players - and it can break some players. Perform poorly, and your stock plummets. Impress the scouts, you could see yourself rising the draft charts.

Let's take a look at a couple of these make or break prospects on the offensive side of the ball.

Quarterback: Chase Daniel (Missouri), Graham Harrell (Texas Tech)
Both players have seen their stocks drop like a rock since the pre-draft rounds began. A good combine could go a long way towards restoring their value, and might push them into the top seven or eight signal-callers. A bad combine could very well seal these two players' fate; we could be talking about being drafted in the fifth round or later - if at all.

Running Back: Glen Coffee (Alabama), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin)
Coffee is towards the bottom of the second tier of running backs in this draft. A good combine might make him the fourth back off the board, but a bad combine could push him out of the top 10. Hill is at a disadvantage because he is at the bottom end of the height spectrum (5'11") but at the top end of the weight spectrum (265 pounds). If he can use the combine to show that he can be a bigger version of Jacob Hester, he'll certainly get looks from teams in the fourth or fifth round. But if he doesn't show the versatility of the lighter running backs, Hill will be looked at as a late-round fullback at best.

Wide Receiver: Patrick Turner (USC), Mike Thomas (Arizona)
Turner must have a good combine to stay on teams' minds. At 6'5" tall and 221 pounds, he certainly has the size. But he has underachieved throughout his college career, and he has to show teams he has the drive and desire to be a top receiver. Turner is falling off of many draft boards, but a good combine could put him back on. Thomas, on the other hand, is undersized at 5'8" tall and 187 pounds. He must prove to teams that his lack of size is not a severe disadvantage.

Tight End: Only 16 tight ends were invited to the combine this year, and basically everyone other than Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma State) has something to prove.

Offensive Line: This is a weak class in terms of guards and centers, while the tackles are pretty strong. I think the big thing to watch will be who differentiates themselves in the big four of Eugene Monroe (Virginia), Jason Smith (Baylor), Andre Smith (Alabama) and Michael Oher (Mississippi). The question remains as to who is number one in this group. The combine may be able to answer that question.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Favre Gone; Is Sanchez Next?

With yesterday's announcement that Brett Favre would be retiring, let the speculation begin: Who will be the next quarterback of the New York Jets?

The Jets have three QBs currently on their roster: Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge and Brett Ratliff. But they also have the No. 17 overall pick, and there is heavy speculation that USC QB Mark Sanchez could fall to New York. The Trojans gunslinger would be a welcome addition in NY. He is in the pro mold with an excellent arm and good smarts. He makes pretty good reads and can be effective in short-yardage and home run ball situations.

There is some question, however, as to whether or not Sanchez will be available at 17. There is widespread speculation that the Kansas City Chiefs (3rd overall) and San Francisco 49ers (10th overall) are interested in taking Sanchez, if he isn't drafted by the Detroit Lions with the first overall selection.

There is also the possibility of the Jets trading down in the first round and selecting Kansas State's Josh Freeman, although it is more likely that they will take one of the big two or no QB at all.

I think Sanchez will be available at 17, and it will be hard for the Jets to pass him up, given his skill level coming out of a pro system at USC. If you asked me to mock the draft today, Sanchez would be a Jet.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

OT: Who is Number 1?

That seems to be the question these days. There's a quartet of highly-talented offensive tackles in this year's draft: Alabama's Andre Smith, Virginia's Eugene Monroe, Baylor's Jason Smith and Mississippi's Michael Oher. All four tackles should be first round picks. But who is the top of the class?

It's an interesting question. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape for these four stars.

NameHeightWeight
Andre Smith6'4-7/8"341
Eugene Monroe6'5-1/8"310
Jason Smith6'4-1/2"300
Michael Oher6'5"330


They're pretty comparable in size, with Smith being the smallest of the four. But size isn't the only thing when judging offensive tackles. Robert Gallery was 6'7" and roughly 325 pounds when the Raiders drafted him, and he has not been the model of consistency on Oakland's offensive line.

So who gets the nod at #1? Andre Smith was the early favorite, but Monroe has moved into that position, with Jason Smith also seeing some play in the top slot. At this moment, I'm going to give Monroe the slight edge. His injury issues have been documented, but he is a powerful force who combines speed and strength. His agility at the position is incredible, and can start from day one.

Both of the Smiths are viable options and cannot be discounted. However, I think the MCL injury sustained by Jason last season, and the bowl-game suspension of Andre could scare some teams off. In terms of sheer physicality, Andre gets the edge. But Monroe's combination of size and speed is striking.

Oher is also a fine player, and his life story is an incredible one. But his speed is not as good as the other three, and thus will most likely be the fourth offensive tackle off the board.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Mock Critique: McShay 1.0

Todd McShay released his first mock draft, and it is chock full of, well, different stuff. You've been seeing a lot of the same from many of the experts, but McShay is taking a different route.

He has plugged Baylor OT Jason Smith into the number two hole, although he acknowledges the St. Louis Rams have multiple options at the position. He finally listened to me (or so I'll say) in giving the Kansas City Chiefs an OLB at three, not a quarterback. Scott Pioli will go defense first, and that means Aaron Curry.

Which leaves the question: Where does Mark Sanchez go? The answer: The New York Jets at 17. I completely agree; if Sanchez manages to slip past the 49ers, he will fall all the way to 17, and the Jets can't pass him up. It's a no-brainer to make that selection.

I disagree, however, with his pick at 18. The Chicago Bears shouldn't take Florida WR Percy Harvin. They already have a big-time playmaker in Devin Hester, and with Hester playing on offense more and more, adding Harvin makes no sense.

The rest of his draft is pretty agreeable, although I don't think the Philadelphia Eagles will take TE Brandon Pettigrew if OT Michael Oher is still on the board.

One other note: McShay has the New England Patriots taking USC LB Clay Matthews at 23. What a story that would be. The former walk-on with a football pedigree becomes a first round pick.