Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Can't Stand Pat

With the rest of the AFC East improving around them, the New England Patriots will turn to the draft to improve their team. The Patriots have a bevy of picks, and Jim Chandley lays out his plan for using them.

Now we are going to proceed under the false pretense that the Patriots are going to pick in the first round. Never mind, you know what? We’re going to proceed under a number of false pretenses.

The first is that the Patriots are going to pick in the first round. The second is that I, or anyone else outside of the Orwellian fortress that is Gillette Stadium, has any idea what the Patriots are going to do; ever. The third is that yours truly knows anything significant about football, which is a generous supposition indeed.

But it’s speculation season, and I love to speculate, so let’s do this!

Assuming that Bill Belichick decides to make a pick in the first round [the one he currently holds at 22], I do not think he goes tight end as many say he will. I admit that Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma) looks enticing. I would be tempted to pick him if I were the Patriots and I were keeping the pick. But I don’t think they will.

It is here that I should also mention the unique situation in New England with regard to the offensive line. The Patriots had some issues protecting Tom Brady this season, and those issues will not be any less severe considering the fact that both Stephen Neal and Dan Koppen could still retire, and are not what they once were. So the temptation would be obvious to draft a talented young man in the first round to protect the quarterback.

Enter Dante Scarnecchia. The offensive line coach has allowed the Patriots to be singularly ignorant of what the draft-rats say about offensive linemen for years. If you give him a decent athlete, he will make him an offensive lineman.

This team thought it was going to carry on without Richard Seymour, and I’m not complaining about winning the division and going 10-6 (ok, well maybe I am complaining about going 10-6, a little). But the fact remains that this team couldn’t rush the passer at all. I think they go defensive end in the first round. There are a couple of candidates; we will assume Derrick Morgan doesn’t make it to them. So the pick is…

DE Everson Griffen (USC).

New England has three second round picks. The first is No. 44 overall. I view this pick as the inverse of the first. If the Patriots do go tight end at 22, they go defensive end at number 44 and likewise in the other direction. Since I took a defensive end at 22, the pick is…

TE Rob Gronkowski (Arizona).

The next pick is number 47, soon after Gronkowski comes off the board to wear his blue and silver jersey. I have a lot of TEs and DEs on my board at this point as a contingency, but since I’ve picked one of each already [and I don’t expect more than one of each until very late Sunday] I will take out an insurance policy here on Wes Welker. The young man I will pick here is a small-framed wideout capable of running quick cutting routes much like Welker. Although we don’t know what Welker’s future holds, an insurance policy is a good idea, and this young man could prove a great weapon opposite Welker in 3-5 wide sets if he is healthy. So the pick is…

RB Dexter McCluster (Mississippi).

At number 53, New England will have filled its major holes, save the gaping one in its ability to cover receivers one-on-one. This will hopefully be fixed by one of the cornerbacks I have singled out as a possibility. I am a little nervous about picking a cornerback here because I feel that the Hooded One wants to see a lot more than what other teams are looking for out of his defensive players. He may well satisfy the need for a corner very late and ignore the types of players I’ve focused on. But assuming I know a little more than I think I do, the pick is…

CB Dominique Franks (Oklahoma).

The Patriots do not pick in the third round, so we wait until the fourth, where they will have their corner and their wideout already. I say this because at this point, my Patriots board is dominated by these positions. However, I again do not see the Patriots taking more than one player at these positions so high. Therefore, I will go to free safety, where New England is always happy to take on another talented player who can potentially play a nickel or dime back and spell the likes of Brandon McGowan. So the pick is…

FS Kam Chancellor (Virginia Tech)

The Patriots have an abundance of late round picks, and Jim eloquently explained each one. He believes the Pats will draft with an eye towards adding OL depth and a couple of offensive players. Here are his projections.

5th round: OT Tony Washington (Abilene Christian)

6th round: G Brandon Carter (Texas Tech)

7th round: C Joe Hawley (UNLV), RB Deji Karim (Southern Illinois), WR Antonio Brown (Central Michigan), QB Tim Hiller (Western Michigan), TE Greg Boone (Virginia Tech)

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